Risk of pancreatic cancer after acute pancreatitis: A population-based matched cohort study

Abstract

BackgroundWe investigated the short- and long-term risks of pancreatic cancer after the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. MethodsThis population-based matched-cohort study used data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Patients with acute pancreatitis (n = 25,488) were matched with the control group (n = 127,440) based on age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, and diabetes. We estimated the hazard ratios for developing pancreatic cancer in both groups using Cox regression analysis. ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 5.4 years, pancreatic cancer developed in 479 patients (1.9%) in the acute pancreatitis group and 317 patients (0.2%) in the control group. Compared with the control group, the risk of pancreatic cancer in the acute pancreatitis group was very high within the first 2 years, which gradually decreased over time. The hazard ratio for the risk of developing pancreatitis was 8.46 (95% confidence interval, 5.57–12.84) at 1–2 years, and then decreased to 3.62 (95% confidence interval, 2.26–4.91) at 2–4 years. However, even after 8–10 years, the hazard ratio was still statistically significantly increased to 2.80 (95% confidence interval, 1.42–5.53). After 10 years, there was no significant difference in the risk of pancreatic cancer between the two groups. ConclusionsThe risk of pancreatic cancer increases rapidly after acute pancreatitis diagnosis, gradually declines after 2 years, and remains elevated for up to 10 years. Further studies are needed to determine the long-term effects of acute pancreatitis on the risk of pancreatic cancer.