Risk of increasing temperature due to climate change on operation of the Spanish rail network

Abstract

The rail network in Spain is around 16.000 km of Iberian, standard and narrow gauge, connecting the main population cities and hubs of transport. Due to its geographical location in southern Europe, during the summer months the entire network is subjected to high temperatures variations, including heat wave events, where temperatures become exceptionally elevates. With the use of continuous welded rails and the absence of expansion joints, temperature changes in rails results in significant compressive stresses. Moreover, climate models considers that extreme temperatures are going to become more frequent and intense in the next decades. Thus, understanding the nature of buckling events is required to identify potential causes and develop adaptation strategies and safety procedures. However, the impact in the railway infrastructure in Spain have not been fully addressed due to the differences in local environmental parameters and track characteristics, among others.In this study, the issue of potential impacts of temperatures on the Spanish railway network are analyzed in terms of average track buckling failures until 2100. The approach addresses the frequency of future buckling events considering the spatial and temporal distribution to establish trends between climate projections and track buckling events. Therefore, this work is of significant importance for planning, design and maintenance, providing a predictive track maintenance regime in order to assist the decision-making process.