Abstract
OBJECTIVESThis study aims to analyze the possibility and conditions of maintaining an effective reproductive number below 1 using a mathematical model.METHODSThe total population was divided into five age groups (0-17, 18-29, 30-59, 60-74, and ≥75 years). Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was used to estimate the transmission rate of each age group. Mathematical model simulation was conducted until December 31, 2021, by establishing various strategies for vaccination and social distancing without considering variants.RESULTSMLE results revealed that the group aged 0-17 years had a lower risk of transmission than other age groups, and the older age group had relatively high risks of infection. If 70% of the population will be vaccinated by the end of 2021, then simulations showed that even if social distancing was eased, the effective reproductive number would remain below 1 near August if it was not at the level of the third re-spreading period. However, if social distancing was eased and it reached the level of the re-spreading period, the effective reproductive number could be below 1 at the end of 2021.CONCLUSIONSConsidering both stable and worsened situations, simulation results emphasized that sufficient vaccine supply and control of the epidemic by maintaining social distancing to prevent an outbreak at the level of the re-spreading period are necessary to minimize mortality and maintain the effective reproductive number below 1.
Highlights
IntroductionCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which started in China at the end of 2019, has spread worldwide, and 160 million confirmed cases, 3 million deaths, and 600,000 daily new confirmed
The transmission rate was estimated to be high in the diagonal components; the highest was for the group aged 18-29 years (II) at 0.79, and the second highest was for the group aged ≥ 75 years (V) at 0.78
The results of the extended model simulation from May 25, 2021 extended to December 31, 2021, show that maintaining social distancing is crucial for an effective vaccination strategy
Summary
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which started in China at the end of 2019, has spread worldwide, and 160 million confirmed cases, 3 million deaths, and 600,000 daily new confirmed. After the maximum number of confirmed cases in the third wave, social distancing was strengthened, and a policy banning private gatherings of five or more people and population were as follows [12]: I: 0-17 years (7,625,814 people); II:T18h-e29tyreaanrss(m7,7is81s,i1oT6n6hpereaotrtpaelens)s;bmIIIei:tsw3s0i-eo5en9nyreaaatrgesse(2bg3e,r6to5w0ue,p8e4sn fpaoegorepmlge)ra;ou5p×s5fomrmatraix
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