Abstract
Based on systematical research on catastrophe theory, system dynamics is a general theory to describe dynamical systems with the goal of achieving structural stability and dynamic stability. In this paper, catastrophe model of dynamic system is established and elements of the system are defined as well. Conditions for system structure mutating are also defined via analysis on dynamism, fuzziness and mutability of system structure. In view of the fact that modes and strength of disturbance or damage to system structural stability are two decisive factors for major accident occurrence and consequences, the course of disturbance or damage can be deemed as the process of quantitative evaluation of major accident risks. Hence, by adopting combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and with the help of simulation technology, decision-makers can do researches on engineering, social and economic systems to make scientific and effective pre-control.
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