Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of computer models, including artificial intelligence systems, in the context of risk assessment and management for wildfowl diseases. In particular, the paper focuses on avian cholera and botulism in U.S. wildfowl, which are a source of continuing concern to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Severe outbreaks occur frequently, and some have been estimated to claim the lives of as many as 300 000 waterfowl. A potentially valuable support to the USFWS would be a set of models that assist in recognizing situations with high risk of an outbreak, assessing the anticipated severity of an outbreak, and advising on possible preventive measures. The USFWS has already initiated development of several potentially useful models. This paper reviews these as well as other related efforts, within the overall context of risk management for avian botulism and cholera.
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