Risk Modelling Approaches for Student-like Models with Fractal Activity Time

Abstract

The paper focuses on value at risk (V@R) measuring for Student-like models of markets with fractal activity time (FAT). The fractal activity time models were introduced by Heyde to try to encompass the empirically found characteristics of real data and elaborated on for Variance Gamma, normal inverse Gaussian and skewed Student distributions. But problem of evaluating an value at risk for this model was not researched. It is worth to mention that if we use normal or symmetric Student`s models than V@R can be computed using standard statistical packages. For calculating V@R for Student-like models we need Monte Carlo method and the iterative scheme for simulating N scenarios of stock prices. We model stock prices as a diffusion processes with the fractal activity time and for modeling increments of fractal activity time we use another diffusion process, which has a given marginal inverse gamma distribution.
 The aim of the paper is to perform and compare V@R Monte Carlo approach and Markowitz approach for Student-like models in terms of portfolio risk. For this purpose we propose procedure of calculating V@R for two types of investor portfolios. The first one is uniform portfolio, where d assets are equally distributed. The second is optimal Markowitz portfolio, for which variance of return is the smallest out of all other portfolios with the same mean return.
 The programmed model which was built using R-statistics can be used as to the simulations for any asset and for construct optimal portfolios for any given amount of assets and then can be used for understanding how this optimal portfolio behaves compared to other portfolios for Student-like models of markets with fractal activity time.
 Also we present numerical results for evaluating V@R for both types of investor portfolio. We show that optimal Markovitz portfolio demonstrates in the most of cases the smallest possible Value at Risk comparing with other portfolios. Thus, for making investor decisions under uncertainty we recommend to apply portfolio optimization and value at risk approach jointly.