Abstract
We explored the regional shifts in hazards at the county level in China for three different time periods (1956–1965, 1976–1985, and 1996–2005). The frequency of natural disasters was used as the assessment index. Based on the probability of natural disasters in each county, the spatial change in risk with increasing intensity of natural disasters was studied. The results show that the frequency of natural disasters is increasing and the area affected by natural disasters extends across the whole country. The patterns of risk distribution in the periods 1956–1965, 1976–1985, and 1996–2005 are defined as Eastern-intensive, National-dispersed, and National-intensive, respectively. The high-risk areas are located in the north of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang Province, the Silim Gol Plateau and the Hulun Buir Plateau in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the eastern coastal provinces (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong Provinces), and most parts of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau. This research offers a scientific basis for the regionalization of disaster risk and a disaster reduction policy for highly vulnerable regions.
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