Abstract
BackgroundClonorchiasis, one of the most important food-borne trematodiases, affects more than 12 million people in the People’s Republic of China (P.R. China). Spatially explicit risk estimates of Clonorchis sinensis infection are needed in order to target control interventions.MethodologyGeoreferenced survey data pertaining to infection prevalence of C. sinensis in P.R. China from 2000 onwards were obtained via a systematic review in PubMed, ISI Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Internet, and Wanfang Data from January 1, 2000 until January 10, 2016, with no restriction of language or study design. Additional disease data were provided by the National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention in Shanghai. Environmental and socioeconomic proxies were extracted from remote-sensing and other data sources. Bayesian variable selection was carried out to identify the most important predictors of C. sinensis risk. Geostatistical models were applied to quantify the association between infection risk and the predictors of the disease, and to predict the risk of infection across P.R. China at high spatial resolution (over a grid with grid cell size of 5×5 km).Principal findingsWe obtained clonorchiasis survey data at 633 unique locations in P.R. China. We observed that the risk of C. sinensis infection increased over time, particularly from 2005 onwards. We estimate that around 14.8 million (95% Bayesian credible interval 13.8–15.8 million) people in P.R. China were infected with C. sinensis in 2010. Highly endemic areas (≥ 20%) were concentrated in southern and northeastern parts of the country. The provinces with the highest risk of infection and the largest number of infected people were Guangdong, Guangxi, and Heilongjiang.Conclusions/SignificanceOur results provide spatially relevant information for guiding clonorchiasis control interventions in P.R. China. The trend toward higher risk of C. sinensis infection in the recent past urges the Chinese government to pay more attention to the public health importance of clonorchiasis and to target interventions to high-risk areas.
Highlights
Clonorchiasis is an important food-borne trematodiases in Asia, caused by chronic infection with Clonorchis sinensis [1,2]
We estimated that approximately 14.8 million people in China were infected with Clonorchis sinensis in 2010
Areas where the high prevalence of C. sinensis was predicted were concentrated in the provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, and Heilongjiang
Summary
Clonorchiasis is an important food-borne trematodiases in Asia, caused by chronic infection with Clonorchis sinensis [1,2]. Conservative estimates suggest that around 15 million people were infected with C. sinensis in 2004, over 85% of whom were concentrated in the People’s Republic of China (P.R. China) [6,7,8]. It has been estimated that, in 2005, clonorchiasis caused a disease burden of 275,000 disabilityadjusted life years (DALYs), though light and moderate infections were excluded from the calculation [9]. Clonorchiasis, one of the most important food-borne trematodiases, affects more than 12 million people in the People’s Republic of China (P.R. China). Explicit risk estimates of Clonorchis sinensis infection are needed in order to target control interventions
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