Risk Map of African Swine Fever In Dairi District, North Sumatra Province

Abstract

Increasing the consumption of pork can benefit farmers in several regions of Indonesia. Most of the profits earned by pig farmers are obtained through exporting pork to foreign countries. Pig farming in Indonesia is threatened with survival caused of an outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF). ASF disease outbreaks in several countries, including Indonesia, are problems that have not been resolved. This study aimed to identify the influence of environmental factors on ASF outbreaks in North Sumatra Province. Data in this study is the incidence of ASF outbreaks in 2019 and 2020, including the outbreak’s date, the outbreak, the location of the outbreak, and the number of pig deaths due to ASF. Data analysis was performed using multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that the environmental factor influencing the incidence of disease cases (ASF) in Dairi Regency, North Sumatra Province, with p_value < 0,1, was a traditional market. The multiple linear regression equation models obtained are Yi = 5545 X6 (Market). The traditional market has a role in the spread of ASF because of the buying and selling of live cattle and pork. The risk map is divided into three zones: high, medium, and low. High risk is a location 5 km from the market, the medium risk is a location 10 km away from the market, and low risk is 20 km from the market. The risk map can be used as a reference for the prevention and control of ASF in Dairi District, North Sumatra Province. Prevention and control can be focused on the existence of traditional markets as a source of ASF spread.