Risk Management of Long Term Infrastructure Projects "PPP-BOT Projects" by Using Uncertainty, Probabilistic and Stochastic Methods, and Models

Abstract

Risk Management is one of the vital factors for success in long term projects. According to some researchers which consider the risks in long term and large structures projects, risk management is the order of the day and one of the critical success factors (CSFs) of PPP-BOT projects. The concept of risk in these projects, where the risks are generally high, involves contingency and uncertainty. So it is essential to employ uncertainty, probabilistic and stochastic methods and to use related models to manage risks in these projects. In this paper some Probabilistic and Stochastic methods, tools and software are used in real cases to show their role and benefits in the life cycle risk management of Long Term Infrastructure Projects; namely PPP-BOT projects and these have been compared with current methods. Finally a framework for these methods has been proposed to examine dependability modeling under uncertainty by using proposed global dynamic environment model.