Abstract
Abstract The paper deals with business valuation in unstable conditions of the external environment. Economic recession and the need for digital transformation is coming to the fore in Russia. As a result of this, the valuation of assets and business acquires additional complexity and issues related to effective risk assessment become relevant. The main objective of this paper is to offer non-traditional methods of risk assessment for business valuation at the moment. The qualitative and quantitative risk analysis will help to improve the quality of the assessment reports of the property in an unstable period. The paper focuses on the non-traditional methods of risk assessment (Monte Carlo method, game theory) which must be used in determining the market value of the object of assessment in the current time. A practical example of using the simulation modeling method is given in detail. Summarizing, the use of the simulation modeling method for calculating the market value of the appraisal object will provide additional (compared to the standard method) information and increase the reliability of the results. Moreover, in the period of the coronavirus pandemic, this paper becomes even more relevant and important, seeing as how uncertainty is becoming inherent in countries around the world. Thus, this study is of value to researchers in the field of economic modeling and appraisers across the globe.
Highlights
Having survived two recessions in 10 years, the Russian economy grew by an average of 0.4% per year
Since 2011, the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been actively developing in the world, which the digital economy is a fundamental basis of
The main aim of this research is to offer non-traditional methods of risk assessment, which should be used in determining the market value of the object of assessment at the present unstable time
Summary
Having survived two recessions in 10 years, the Russian economy grew by an average of 0.4% per year. The International Monetary Fund forecasts a growth rate of the Russian economy of 1.7%, with a slowdown to 1.5% in the five years. This is a third slower than developed countries’ economies are growing (2.4% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019), half the rate of the global economy (3.9% for the two years) and almost three times worse than developing countries, whose growth is estimated at 4.9% in 2018 and 5.1% in 2019. The role of digitalization is significantly increasing, which is becoming the main factor in the development of the world economy. Since 2011, the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been actively developing in the world, which the digital economy is a fundamental basis of. The introduction of modern digital technologies in various areas of activity is a priority for the development of the national economy
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