Abstract
Global climate model outputs involve uncertainties in prediction, which could be reduced by identifying agreements between the output results of different models, covering all assumptions included in each. Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. is an invasive pathogen that poses risk to date palm cultivation, among other crops. Therefore, in this study, the future distribution of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., confirmed by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs, was modeled and combined with the future distribution of date palm predicted by the same GCMs, to identify areas suitable for date palm cultivation with different risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Results showed that 40%, 37%, 33% and 28% areas projected to become highly conducive to date palm are under high risk of its lethal fungus, compared with 37%, 39%, 43% and 42% under low risk, for the chosen years respectively. Our study also indicates that areas with marginal risk will be limited to 231, 212, 186 and 172 million hectares by 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The study further demonstrates that CLIMEX outputs refined by a combination of different GCMs results of different species that have symbiosis or parasite relationship, ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.
Highlights
Climatic parameters including temperature, moisture, windiness and snowfall play an important role in the development of associations between crops and diseases [1]
Paterson [5] demonstrated that climate change will impose negative effects on oil palm trees because of greater stresses caused by climate alteration
This study made use of the ArcGIS software to find the agreements between the results of different global climate models (GCMs) and to extract the location of areas becoming highly conducive to date palm under different risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. under different GCMs, from 2030 to 2100
Summary
Moisture, windiness and snowfall play an important role in the development of associations between crops and diseases [1]. Paterson [5] concluded that the distribution of oil palm diseases will change as climate changes. Rosenzweig et al [6] modeled results on the impact of climate change on the yield of four different crops, wheat, maize, rice and soybean, and showed a significant reduction with a 4 °C increase in global temperature. These cash crops may continue to be cultivated in marginal climates for economic purposes, and diseases, which are inactive due to unfavorable climatic condition, may rapidly become serious problems under altering climate. Studying the effect of climate change on future distribution of economic crops and their diseases, is as much about detecting new opportunities as about minimizing undesirable effects
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