Abstract
Geological disasters are a great threat to people’s lives and property. At present, it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the cascading effects of regional geological disasters, and the development of new methods for such evaluation is much needed. In this study, the authors have developed a joint procedure that couples the Newmark model and the RockFall Analyst model based on a GIS platform in order to identify the impact of seismic landslides on roads. The new method effectively combines two processes—seismic landslide occurrence probability analysis and mass movement trajectory simulation. The permanent displacement derived from the Newmark model is used to identify potential source areas of landslides. Based on the RockFall Analyst model, the possible impact of mass movement on the roads can be simulated. To verify the reliability of the method, the landslides induced by the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Earthquake were taken as a case study. The results suggest that about 21.37% of the study area is at high risk of seismic landslides, and approximately 3.95 km of road sections are at extremely high risk of large landslides. The simulated area is consistent with the distribution of disasters revealed by post-earthquake remote sensing image interpretation and field investigation in existing studies. This indicates that the procedure, which joins the Newmark and RockFall models, has a high reliability for risk identification and can be applied to seismic landslide risk assessment and prediction in similar areas.
Highlights
Seismic landside is one of the common disasters in mountainous areas
Each model accomplishes specific objectives: the Newmark model is used for seismic landslide probability analysis, and the Rockfall Analyst model is used for further unstable mass movement trajectory simulation
The joint model procedure provides a method for the risk identification of seismic landslides on specific objects based on both seismic landslide probability analysis and movement trajectory simulation to determine landslide intensity
Summary
Seismic landside is one of the common disasters in mountainous areas. It is widely reported hat a large number of landslides have been induced by catastrophic earthquakes (Cui et al 2008; Owen et al 2008; Chen et al 2016). Serious economic losses and casualties were caused by these earthquakes and secondary disasters (Parsons et al 2009; Sun et al 2013; Zhang et al 2014). The losses and casualties related to secondary disasters are believed to be much greater than those caused by the earthquakes themselves (Bai et al 2012; Rodrıguez-Peces et al 2014). It is still a major challenge to evaluate adequately and quantitatively the regional cascading effects of a seismic landslide, and the development of new or improved methods for evaluation of these impacts is of great significance
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