Risk homeostasis theory and traffic accidents: propositions, deductions and discussion of dissension in recent reactions

Abstract

Abstract There is abundant evidence showing that technological innovations have led to major reductions in the accident loss per unit distance of mobility, in certain road sections, on certain roads as well as in the road network as a whole. However, the accident loss per time unit of road-user exposure and per head of population have not shown equally favourable downward trends. In order to explain this contrast, as well as many other findings regarding road-user behaviour, the theory of risk homeostasis (RHT) has been put forward. This posits that accident loss per capita and road-user behaviour are mutually related in a closed-loop regulation process, with the level of preferred risk as the controlling variable outsidethe closed loop. There is evidence also that the per capita traffic accidents can be reduced by motivational interventionsthat are effective in lowering road users' preferred level of accident risk. RHT has received support as well as opposition from other researchers. The purpose of the ...