Abstract
Comprehensive georeference records for human African trypanosomiasis in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon were combined with human population layers to estimate a kernel-smoothed relative risk function. Five risk categories were mapped, and ≈3.5 million persons were estimated to be at risk for this disease.
Highlights
The Study The study area in central Africa comprised Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon
Human population distribution was obtained from LandScan databases
The intensity of HAT cases and human population was estimated by using a quadratic kernel function [12]
Summary
The results of the analysis are shown in the Figure, in which risk areas are mapped, and in Table 2, which summarizes the number of persons at risk, the extent of areas at risk, and the corresponding number of cases. Very high–risk areas comprise the most active foci in the Central African Republic (Batangafo, Obo, Mboki, and Zemio) and in Congo (Mpouya and Ngabé). These zones are located mainly in rural areas in which human population density is low, but they include a few small towns. The moderate-risk category includes foci in Nola-Bilolo and Lobaye Prefecture (Central African Republic), Bipindi and Campo (Cameroon), Kango and Port Gentil (Gabon), Mbini (Equatorial Guinea), and areas in Bouenza and Gamboma (Congo). Low-risk areas were found mainly at the periphery of zones to which HAT is highly endemic, but they include a few isolated foci with low levels of transmission, such as Mamfé, Fontem, and Doumé (Cameroon). Very low–risk zones represent the extreme periphery of active foci, but they include isolated rural foci, such as Mbandjock (Cameroon) and Libreville (Gabon), one of the largest urban agglomerations in the region
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