Abstract
Several authors have emphasized the need for empirically derived instruments for reoffending risk assessment among young sex offenders (YSOs). The authors screened the literature on sex offenders for clinically or empirically motivated variables related to criminal recidivism, identifying 22 putative risk factors. All Swedish YSOs (aged 15-20) subjected to court-ordered forensic psychiatric investigations from 1988 through 1995 and available for follow-up (n = 46) were included (mean time at risk = 5 years). Base rates for sexual and general recidivism were 20% and 65%, respectively. Previous criminality, early onset conduct disorder, psychopathy, and use of death threats and weapons at index sex crime proved predictive of general but not sexual recidivism. Factors indicative of sexual deviance (early onset sexually abusive behavior, male victim choice, more than one victim) and poor social skills were associated with elevated risk for sexual reoffending. However, replication in independent samples is needed to corroborate these preliminary findings.
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