Risk factors of thromboembolism in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients with low CHA2DS2-VASc score.

Abstract

The risk of thromboembolism in patients with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 to 1 was low, and the anticoagulant therapy was not recommended. Although the CHA2DS2-VASc score was low, there were still many patients suffered from thrombotic events and stroke. We aim to investigate the risk factors of thrombotic events in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients with low CHA2DS2-VASc score.We retrospectively enrolled 595 consecutive NVAF patients with low CHA2DS2-VASc score (male: CHA2DS2-VASc = 0, female: CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). The general clinical data, blood biochemical data, and echocardiography results of the 595 patients were collected. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to evaluate risk factors of thrombosis. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to identify the optimal cut-off value of the independent risk factors. A P value of <.05 (2-sided) was considered to be statistically significant.In multivariate analysis, lipoprotein (a) (Lp(a)) plasma level and left atrium diameter (LAD) were positively related to thromboembolism in NVAF patients with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 to 1 after adjustment for age, gender, and other variables (odds ratio [OR] = 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01–1.03; OR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06–1.18). Lp(a) exerted a significant predictive value with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.62 (95% CI: 0.55–0.68, P < .01). The optimal cut-off value for Lp(a) predicting thrombotic events was 27.2 mg/dL (sensitivity 45.7%, specificity 73.4%). LAD showed a significant predictive value with AUC of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.64–0.78, P < .01). The optimal cut-off point for LAD predicting thrombotic events was 43.5 mm (sensitivity 47.1%, specificity 85.8%).High Lp(a) plasma level and left atrial dilatation might be independent risk factors of thrombotic events for NVAF patients with low CHA2DS2-VASc score.