Risk factors of high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia recurrence in HIV-infected MSM

Abstract

To assess risk factors of high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia (HGAIN) recurrence in a cohort of HIV-infected MSM. Consecutive HIV-infected 100 MSM with a history of successfully treated intra-anal HGAIN with electrocautery were followed with anal cytology, human papillomavirus (HPV) determination, and high-resolution anoscopy (HRA) at 3-6-month intervals. HGAIN recurrence was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk factors of recurrence were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. The value of different tests for detecting recurrence was also assessed. After a mean follow-up of 17.6 months, 39 of the 100 patients [39%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 29-49] developed recurrent HGAIN, 24 at the previously treated site, and 15 at a different site. The probability of recurrence was 23.5% at 12 months (95% CI: 13.9-33.1) and 53.3% at 24 months (95% CI: 34.3-72.7). Risk factors of recurrence were presence of hepatitis C antibodies (hazard ratio 2.79; 95% CI: 1.04-7.53), nadir CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/μl (hazard ratio 2.61; 95% CI: 1.06-6.44), and HGAIN lesions affecting at least two octants of anal circumference (hazard ratio 8.27; 95% CI: 1.1-62). Infection by at least two HPV oncogenic strains increased the risk of recurrence (hazard ratio 2.3; 95% CI: 0.98-5.42). HRA, anal cytology, and oncogenic HPV determination test showed a sensitivity of 100, 79.4, and 86.7%, and a specificity of 57.7, 36.6, and 34.7%, respectively, for detecting HGAIN recurrence. The risk of HGAIN recurrence in HIV-infected MSM is high. Regular posttreatment follow-up of these patients is mandatory, and performing direct HRA appears to be the best strategy.