Risk factors, logistic model, and vulnerability mapping of lumpy skin disease in livestock at the farm level in Indragiri Hulu District, Riau Province, Indonesia, in 2022.

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an emerging epidemic in livestock in Indonesia. It was first reported in the Indragiri Hulu Regency of Riau Province, which has more cases than the surrounding regencies. This study aimed to identify the risk factors and generate a logistic regression model and vulnerability map of LSD in the Indragiri Hulu Regency. We used a structured questionnaire to interview the case and control farm owners to evaluate the risk factors. We evaluated 244 samples, consisting of 122 case and control farm samples each. At the cattle farm level, the risk factor data related to LSD were analyzed using descriptive statistics, bivariate analysis with Chi-square, and odds ratio, while the logistic model was derived using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Using variables, such as the number of cases and risk factor variables included in the model logistic, and the temperature, humidity, and rainfall data from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency, we analyzed the vulnerability map of LSD in the regency using scoring, weighting, and overlay methods. Ten significant risk factors were associated with LSD occurrence. The LSD model obtained from the logistic regression analysis was LSD (Y) = -3.92095 + 1.13107 (number of cattle >3) + 1.50070 (grazing cattle together with other farmers' cattle) + 1.03500 (poor management of farm waste/dirt) + 2.49242 (presence of livestock collectors/traders near the farm location) + 1.40543 (introduction of new livestock) + 2.15196 (lack of vector control measures on the farm). The LSD vulnerability map indicated that the villages with high vulnerability levels were Rantau Bakung, Kuantan Babu, and Sungai Lala in the Rengat Barat, Rengat, and Sungai Lala subdistricts, respectively. We found 10 significant risk factors associated with LSD occurrence. The LSD model included the number of cattle (>3), cograzing with other farmers' cattle, poor management of farm waste/dirt, the presence of livestock collectors/traders near the farm, introduction of new livestock, and lack of vector control measures on the farm. The LSD vulnerability map indicated that villages with high vulnerability levels included Rantau Bakung in the Rengat Barat subdistrict, Kuantan Babu in the Rengat subdistrict, and Sungai Lala in the Sungai Lala subdistrict.