Risk Factors for Progression to Referable Diabetic Eye Disease in People With Diabetes Mellitus in Auckland, New Zealand: A 12-Year Retrospective Cohort Analysis.

Abstract

To evaluate the prevalence and risk factors for the development of any and referable diabetic eye disease in a multi-ethnic New Zealand population with diabetes mellitus attending a regional retinal screening service. Retrospective observational cohort study of people living with diabetes who attended the Auckland Regional Diabetic Retinal Screening Programme 2006-2018 inclusive (n = 41,786). Any retinopathy/maculopathy was present at first screening for 48.2% [95% confidence interval (CI): 45.8%-50.6%] / 37.8% (95% CI: 35.5%- 40.1%) of people with Type 1 and 25% (95% CI: 24.6%-25.4%) / 21.9% (95% CI: 21.5%-22.3%) with Type 2 diabetes. Referable retinopathy at baseline screening was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.6%-5.3%) and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.5%-1.7%) among people with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively. After 4 years, cumulative incidence for referable retinopathy /referable maculopathy was 12/36 per 1000 people with Type 1 and 2.4/16 per 1000 people with Type 2 diabetes. Independent hazards for disease progression varied for the diabetes cohort types but baseline grade, duration of diabetes, and HbA1c were common to all. Referable diabetic eye disease at the first screening and after 4 years of follow-up is uncommon. Lengthening of the screening intervals for people with no or mild diabetic eye disease at first screening assessment could be considered.