Risk factors for outbreaks caused by variant strain of Newcastle disease on environmentally controlled broiler chicken farms in Lahore, Pakistan

Abstract

Newcastle disease (ND) is a frequently reported disease in poultry among both vaccinated and non-vaccinated flocks in Pakistan. During 2011-2012 poultry industry in Punjab, mainly in Lahore region, faced fatal outbreaks of ND caused by a variant strain. An analytical study was conducted during outbreak period in Lahore region. A total of 114 environmentally controlled farms were selected with the help of convenient sampling method. A questionnaire was designed about the potential risk factors associated with the spread of ND outbreak. The bivariate relationships between ND status and independent variables were investigated by applying the Chi-square and Fisher's exact test. Multivariable logistic model was used to estimate the effect of each studied variable on the outcome by adjusting the other variables in the model. The variables which showed an association with ND outbreaks at commercial poultry farms were improper method for dead birds disposal (OR=4.96; 95% CI 1.63-15.12), use of same feed transporting vehicle at multiple poultry farms (OR=4.92; 95% CI 1.58-15.33), farm to farm distance of less than 1 km (OR=9.32; 95% CI(1.19-73.12), number of sheds at one farm (OR=2.31; 95% CI 0.93-5.69), labor type (OR=2.72; 95% CI 0.83-8.88) and biosecurity (OR= 4.47; 95% CI 0.56-35.66).