Risk factors for mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus patients: Analysis of adult and pediatric cohorts in Taiwan.

Abstract

Overall survival of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients significantly increased in recent decades, however, the relative risk of mortality is still high. Long-term survival outcome of pediatric SLE remains unclear. This study aims to explore the long-term survival rate and its predictors in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). A retrospective, hospital-based cohort study was performed between 2004 and 2018 in a tertiary referral medical center in Taiwan. Data on comorbidities, medications, and causes of admission were collected for risk factor analysis using time-dependent multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. A total of 2392 adults and 115 pediatric SLE patients were enrolled (female, n = 2157 and 95, respectively). The 10-year survival rates were 93.2%, 90.2%, 98.9%, and 100% in adult women, adult men, girls, and boys with SLE, respectively. The overall mortality rate was 2.09 case/100 patient-years (PY) for male SLE and 1.39 case/100 PY for female SLE patients. Male SLE patients did not have a statistically significantly higher mortality rate than female SLE patients in each age stratification. Infectious disease (n = 119), heart failure (n = 21), and cerebrovascular accident (n = 14) were the leading causes of death in adult SLE patients. Advanced age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.05), treatment with mean dosage of systemic glucocorticoid equivalent to >10 mg/d of prednisolone (HR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.14-2.57), comorbidities with malignancy (HR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.22-3.09), chronic kidney disease (HR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.25-2.77), hypertension (HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.01-1.98), and admission due to bacterial pneumonia (HR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.12-3.31) and sepsis (HR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.51-5.13) were independent risk factors for mortality in SLE patients. SLE patients with advanced age, malignancy, chronic kidney disease, hypertension, treated with a higher average dosage of glucocorticoids, and admission due to bacterial pneumonia and sepsis have an increased risk of mortality.