Risk factors for and predictive nomogram of overall survival in adult patients with craniopharyngiomas: A SEER population-based study.

Abstract

Studies with relatively large sample size as well as long-term follow-up focusing on adult craniopharyngioma (CP) patients are still lacking. We attempted to identify independent prognostic factors and establish a nomogram model to estimate survival rates for adult CP patients.The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to obtain data on patients with CP. Univariable and multivariable Cox analyses were utilized to identify the prognostic factors of adult CP patients. A survival prediction model was constructed and its predictive performance was also assessed.A total of 991 patients (695 in training group and 296 in validation group) were eligible for final inclusion. Multivariate Cox analysis presented that age at diagnosis, marital status, race, tumor size, and surgery type were statistically significant prognostic factors for overall survival (all P < .05). A graphical predicting nomogram model was developed to calculate the predicted patients’ survival probabilities at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years. The concordance indexes were 0.708 ± 0.019 and 0.750 ± 0.025 for the training and validation samples, respectively, demonstrating favorable discrimination abilities. Similarly, the time-dependent area under curve also showed overall satisfactory discrimination ability. Favorable consistencies between the predicted and actual survival were presented according to the calibration curves.An easy-to-use nomogram, being proven to be with reliable discrimination ability and accuracy, was established to help predict overall survival for adult patients with CP using the identified significant prognostic factors.