Risk Factors and Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Seroprevalence in China Before and After African Swine Fever Outbreak.

Abstract

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is an infectious viral disease that causes great harm to the pig industry. PRRS virus (PRRSV), the causative agent of PRRS, is characterized by severe reproductive failure and respiratory confusion. This study performed a cross-sectional investigation of PRRSV seroprevalence and collected 14,134 serum samples in pig farms without PRRSV vaccination from 12 provinces and two cities in China from 2017 to 2021 to detect PRRSV antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The apparent and true PRRSV antibody prevalence was estimated and compared based on the Clopper-Pearson method and Pearson chi-square test, respectively. Risk factors associated with the PRRSV serological status of pig farms were analyzed through univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis. An automatic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model procedure was used for time-series analysis for PRRSV seroprevalence. Spatial clusters of high PRRSV seroprevalence were detected by SaTScan software. The total true PRRSV seroprevalence of the animal level was 62.56% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 61.74–63.37%). Additionally, 286 out of 316 pig farms were positive for PRRSV antibodies at the herd level. Pig farms without pseudorabies virus (PRV) infection were 5.413 (95% CI: 1.977–17.435) times more likely to be PRRSV antibody positive than those with PRV. Identically, the possibility of pig farms being PRRSV antibody positive before an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak was 3.104 (95% CI: 1.122–10.326) times more than after ASF. The odd ratio values of medium and large pig farms with PRRSV infection are 3.076 (95% CI: 1.005–9.498) and 6.098 (95% CI: 1.814–21.290). A fluctuant decline pattern for PRRSV prevalence was observed in the temporal analysis. Three significant clusters of high PRRSV seroprevalence were first detected in China, covering a time frame from January 2018 to September 2018, which reveals high PRRSV prevalence before the outbreak of ASF. These findings show the epidemic situation and spatial-temporal distribution of PRRSV infection in China in recent years and could help develop reasonable measures to prevent PRRSV infection.