Risk factors and predictive models for sequelae of heat stroke primarily involving cerebellar dysfunction

Abstract

ABSTRACT The occurrence of sequelae is common after heatstroke. There is a lack of risk prediction data regarding the prevalence of sequelae. This study aims to develop a predictive model for the sequelae after heatstroke, including cerebellar dysfunction. Heatstroke patients admitted to our hospital in the past 8 years were retrospectively enrolled. Regression analyses were conducted to identify risk factors associated with sequelae and cerebellar dysfunction. A prediction model for post-heatstroke sequelae was developed and internally and externally validated. Twenty-three percent of the patients experienced sequelae, with cerebellar dysfunction accounting for 51.7%. Patients with sequelae had longer duration of hyperthermia and coma, lower Glasgow Coma Scales scores, elevated core temperature, increased incidence of multiple organ dysfunction upon admission, and a worse prognosis compared to non-sequelae patients. Patients with cerebellar injury exhibited impaired balance, and a Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score > 5 is an independent risk factor. The prediction system included advanced age, coma, and an APACHE-II score > 10 upon admission, predicting sensitivity = 0.8966, specificity = 0.8925, and AUC of ROC curve = 0.941 (95% CI: 0.884 ~ 0.976). The C-index in the internal verification was 0.942 (95% CI: 0.847 ~ 0.981) and the AUC in the external verification was 0.816 (95% CI: 0.699 ~ 0.902). The prediction system included advanced age, coma, and higher APACHE-II scores as variables, indicating a significant prevalence of sequelae. Higher SOFA scores were associated with the increased occurrence of cerebellar dysfunction and balance impairment. The prediction system could better predict sequelae after heatstroke.