Risk factors and molecular epidemiology of canine rabies in Beijing

Abstract

Rabies is a serious public health problem in Asia and Africa. Approximately 99% of cases result from a bite by an infected dog. The high rabies risk countries are generally characterized by rapid urbanization; however, the prevalence and risk factors for rabies in urban dogs in developing countries remain unclear. Beijing, the capital of China, has been undergoing rapid urbanization, and implemented compulsory rabies immunization for dogs on October 1, 2014. We evaluated the effects of this immunization policy and investigated the dynamics and determinants of the spread of dog rabies virus (RABV) in Beijing. Between 2013 and 2018, the positive rate of rabies in biting dogs declined significantly; 79.6% of these were stray dogs. Reconstructed spatiotemporal diffusion for RABV presents a more central distribution within Beijing and a surrounding dissemination of virus lineage toward suburban areas, indicating that rabies is self-sustaining in Beijing. Continuous RABV phylogeographic reconstructions and logistic regression analysis of rabies cases revealed that rabies tended to remain in commercial areas, high-rise residences, demolition areas, and high-GDP, high-population and high-accessibility areas. Demolition areas, where many residents have abandoned their pets, are recognized as high-risk areas for rabies. Our findings reveal that the implementation of the immunization policy in Beijing has been effective in prevention and control of canine rabies, and because the prevalence of canine rabies results from multiple factors, emphasize the important role of multi-sectoral cooperation in rabies prevention and control.