Risk factors and construction of a nomogram model for cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis combined with esophagogastric variceal bleeding

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the risk factors and construct a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis in patients combined with esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EVB). Methods: Clinical data on 416 cirrhotic PVT cases was collected from the First Hospital of Lanzhou University between January 2016 and January 2022. A total of 385 cases were included after excluding 31 cases for retrospective analysis. They were divided into an esophagogastric variceal bleeding group and a non-esophagogastric variceal bleeding group based on the clinical diagnosis. The esophagogastric variceal group was then further divided into an EVB group and a non-bleeding group. All patients underwent gastroscopy, serology, and imaging examinations. The risk factors of PVT combined with EVB were identified by univariate analysis using SPSS 26. The prediction model of cirrhotic PVT in patients combined with EVB was constructed by R 4.0.4. The prediction efficiency and clinical benefits of the model were evaluated by the C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plots, and decision curve. The measurement data were examined by a t-test or Mann-Whitney U test. The counting data were tested using the χ(2) test or the Fisher exact probability method. Results: There were statistically significant differences in the etiology, Child-Pugh grade,erythrocyte count, hematocrit, globulin, and serum lipids between the esophageal and non-esophageal varices groups (P < 0.05). There were statistically significant differences in etiology, erythrocyte count, hemoglobin, hematocrit, neutrophil percentage, total protein, globulin, albumin/globulin, urea, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, calcium, and neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) between the EVB and non-bleeding groups (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that etiology (OR = 3.287, 95% CI: 1.497 ~ 7.214), hematocrit (OR = 0.897, 95% CI: 0.853 ~ 0.943), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR = 0.229, 95% CI: 0.071 ~ 0.737) were independent risk factors for cirrhotic PVT patients combined with EVB. The constructed normogram model predicted the probability of bleeding in patients. The nomogram model had shown good consistency and differentiation (AUC = 0.820, 95% CI: 0.707 ~ 0.843), as verified by 10-fold cross-validation (C-index = 0.799) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test (P = 0.915). The calibration plot and the decision curve suggested that the prediction model had good stability and clinical practicability. Conclusion: The risk factors for EVB occurrence include etiology, erythrocyte, hemoglobin, hematocrit, percentage of neutrophils, total protein, globulin, albumin/globulin, urea, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, calcium, and NLR in patients with cirrhotic liver. The constructed prediction model has good predictive value, and it can provide a reference for medical personnel to screen patients with high bleeding risk for targeted treatment.