Risk Factor Analysis and Sustainability Assessment of AIC Development under Sanctions

Abstract

The sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex is a priority task and a factor in ensuring food security in Russia. The relevance of the study is due to the lack of transparency and limited existing ratings of agribusiness companies, the lack of consideration of the impact of sanctions, their consequences and the ability of companies to promptly reconfigure their business models. In this regard, the purpose of the study was to form a methodology for assessing the sustainability of the development of agribusiness companies in modern conditions. The presented methodology is based on the principles of prioritizing the impact of sustainable development criteria on competitive opportunities; availability of accessible information, its regularity and understandability for users; using the risk factor approach as a navigator for assessing competitive positions. The research methodology is based on an industry approach, followed by an assessment of the impact of identified risk factors on trends in production indicators, market share dynamics, efficiency of operating, financial and investment activities, and business development rates. To visualize the results, the method of constructing competitiveness polygons was used, which provides a clear assessment of the competitive advantages and management abilities of companies to quickly adapt to changing market conditions. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a situational approach to assessing the sustainability of the development of agribusiness companies, based on the impact of identified industry risk factors on business performance. Approbation of the methodology was carried out on the companies, which are participants in the credit ratings for the agro-industrial complex sector of national rating agencies accredited by the Bank of Russia. The theoretical significance of the study lies in the development and adaptation of the methodology of sectoral analysis to the specifics and needs of the agro-industrial complex for the purpose of its sustainable development. The practical results are of value to the Ministry of Agriculture and private investors interested in an independent assessment of companies in order to minimize the risks of investing in sustainable development projects.