RISK‐EXPLICIT APPRAISAL: A SLICED INCOME APPROACH

Abstract

Property investment risk is traditionally accounted for by valuers in a risk‐adjusted discount rate approach, although this term, popular in mainstream finance, is rarely used. This paper shows that RADR is but one of several risk adjustment techniques that may be employed within an explicit cash flow framework. It explains how a certainty equivalent technique may be used in an objective manner by use of standard deviation analysis, and develops a new technique for use in the UK prime market known as the sliced income approach. The paper goes further by setting risk adjustment (deterministic) techniques within the wider context of risk analysis and compares a simple probabilistic approach and sensitivity analysis with these techniques for use in property investment appraisal. A case study is employed in illustrations.