Risk Evolution of Ship Oil Spill in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Jie Yin,Ting Xiong,Aditya Rio Prabowo

doi:10.1155/2021/8197944

Jie Yin, Ting Xiong + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/8197944

Copy DOI

Abstract

Ship oil spill accident will lead to enormous hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The risk mitigation of the ship oil spill is significant to the stakeholder of the maritime safety administration. To study the risk evolution of the ship oil spill in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the framework of ship oil spill risk evolution was proposed according to the general definition of the risk; then, risk evolutions were analyzed from the perspectives of expected probability, system constraints of accident developing, and possible harmful consequences based on accidents analyses, simulation experiments, and structural equation model analysis. The results indicate that the system constraints of accident developing, such as the quantity of oil spills, free evolution time, and wind and flow conditions, have significant impacts on risk evolution of the ship oil spill after the occurrence of an accident in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

Highlights

From the important gaps in the literatures and the demand of emergency response decisionmaking of ship oil spill accidents, this paper studies the risk evolution of the ship oil spill in the ree Gorges Reservoir area. e innovation of this study is twofold. e first one is proposing the framework of ship oil spill risk evolution from the perspectives of expected probability, system constraints, and harmful consequence. e second one is analyzing risk evolutions of the ship oil spill in the ree Gorges Reservoir area from the perspectives of expected probability, system constraints of accident developing, and possible harmful consequences
Where R is the risk of oil spills from ships, P is the expected probability of ship oil spill accidents related to ship elements, navigational environmental conditions, and classification standards, f (z1, z2, z3) are the coefficients of system constraints caused by oil spill accidents related to the quantity of oil spills z1, free evolution time z2, wind and flow conditions z3, etc., the greater the coefficient of system constraints, the greater the hazard caused by oil spill accidents, and S is the degree of damage caused by oil spill accidents, mainly the loss of public safety hazards, the loss of environmental pollution, the cost of clean-up costs, and the economic hazard losses
Large quantities of oil spills have a high probability of causing high damage. erefore, damage of the ship oil spill in the ree Gorges Reservoir area is related to the system constraints of accident developing, namely, the amount of the oil spill, the free evolution time of the oil spill, and the form of diffusion drift

Summary

Introduction

With the rapid development of national economy, a steady growth is shown in China’s demand for petroleum energy, number of related water transportation activities, as well as the risk of oil spill accidents. E ree Gorges reservoir area of the Yangtze River is a special navigable water area with high social concern and high relevance to people’s livelihood. Transportation of dangerous goods by water in the ree Gorges reservoir area has been rapidly increasing. According to the statistics of the Yangtze River Maritime Safety Administration, more than 100 oil spill accidents have occurred in the area in the past 20 years. It is of great significance to enhance the emergency response capability and minimize the oil pollution risk in the ree Gorges reservoir area

Literature Review

Ship Oil Pollution and Prevention in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Framework of Ship Oil Spill Risk Evolution

Risk Evolution of Ship Oil Spill from the Perspective of Expected Probability

Conclusions and Prospects