Risk evolution and prevention and control strategies in emergency responses for Arctic maritime transportation

Abstract

The intertwined and complex risks involved in the various stages of the Arctic maritime transportation emergency response severely hinder the response's effectiveness. The present study aims to develop a risk coupling network involved in the Arctic maritime transportation emergency response. First, an Arctic maritime transportation emergency response scenario is defined by reviewing SAR manuals and agreements, emergency guidelines of ships, and emergency drill videos. Second, the control structure of the emergency response process is systematically analyzed through Systems-theoretic process analysis, and a risk coupling network with task-layer, unsafe control actions-layer, and risk-layer is developed. Third, the robustness of the risk coupling network is stimulated by random and deliberate attacks, where deliberate attacks are based on the measured results of node degree, betweenness centrality, and integrated values. Finally, critical risk factors are determined based on the results of the network robustness analysis, and targeted prevention and control strategies of critical risk factors for the Arctic maritime transportation emergency response are proposed. The research findings suggest that equipment/system failures, personnel experience and expression capabilities, the effects of high-latitude magnetic fields, response times to assistance requests, and the preparedness of emergency resources should be focused on during Arctic maritime transportation emergency response.