Risk evaluation-power system induced bush and grass fires and the catastrophe potential

Abstract

The authors outline a modeling technique concerned with risk and failure of overhead power-distribution systems. The three-part methodology is based on revision of probabilities derived from a line-fault database and the extremes of a Gumbel distribution. A risk-evaluation example of an actual event is included. The authors formulate a methodology for representing and analyzing the elements which combine to cause an overhead distribution system to break down and generate a risk situation. It is based on using data as they are normally reported in fault situations. The application of conditional probabilities to revise available data is based on making what appears to be a complicated problem solvable by dividing it into parts. That is, the initial discrete model is revised by weather weighting and a unique temperature. The outcome is further revised by including locality, litigious claim, and catastrophe probabilities.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">&gt;</ETX>