Risk evaluation of the grain supply chain in China

Abstract

ABSTRACT The food supply chain (GSC) involves multiple links from production to consumption. The interruption of one or more links will lead to supply risks, evolving into food crises. To better guarantee food security, maintain national security, it is essential to improve the structural imbalance of China's food supply. This article innovatively regards trade as an important link in the food supply chain and quantitatively designs 16 indicators from the four links of production, consumption, trade, and circulation to evaluate the food supply chain risks of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2019. The results show that: (1) The GSC risk value at the regional scale is generally stable, and the western region is slightly higher than the eastern region. (2) The distribution of risk value shows significant spatial clustering. (3) During the study period, China's grain risk has not changed significantly. The highest average risk is the production link of the supply chain, followed by the distribution and trade links. He also believes that adjusting production, enhancing regional trade, strengthening suitability, and enhancing defensiveness are corresponding measures to improve the food supply chain. It is expected to provide a reasonable reference for government agencies.