Risk Evaluation and Prediction of Rainfall Disaster in Flood Season Based on Pearson Fitness Test and Risk Function

Abstract

Heavy rainfall during flood season causes great losses for the cities and the farmland. In order to better describe the flood season rainfall disaster events, the risk function combining risk probability and risk loss is put forward, and the risk degree value is obtained by combining the corresponding risk loss. The probability distribution of precipitation in flood season is found out through Pearson fitness test, and the probability of precipitation in each flood season is calculated using the hydrological frequency analysis method. In this paper, taking Tongzhou district of Beijing city as an example, the above method was used for risk analysis, and the result was close to the reality. The research results have deepened the understanding of the changing law of precipitation risk in Tongzhou district and have certain reference value for urban disaster prevention decision-making.