Abstract
The use, on a large scale, of fossil fuels and their derivatives has devastating long-term consequences for mankind. Therefore is an urgent need to seek new alternatives for sustainable energy production. This fact is one of the great challenges to be faced by researchers worldwide. Within this context, the elephant grass has been standing out successfully in the production of biomass for energy purposes. The purpose in this study was to analyze the economic viability of biomass production of three genotypes of elephant grass for energy purposes and to identify the risk by means of the Monte Carlo simulation. The economic indicators were obtained by calculating the Net Present Value (NPV), the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and the Profitability Index (PI). To determine the degree of uncertainty, analysis of sensitivity was applied. Results indicated viability for all genotypes, especially the Guaçú/I.Z.2, with IRR of 17.79%. Variation in sale price of grass generates a greater impact on profitability, followed by the labor and fertilization costs. The risk of failure was relatively low, with the exception of Capim Cana D’África, 38.16%. Among the three genotypes studied, the G1 genotype (Guaçú/I.Z.2) stood out as the one with the best economic viability.
Highlights
Global energy demand has grown throughout the years, an increase related to industrial production, population growth, new energy using technologies, among other factors
According to Santos et al (2014), when evaluating the effect of nitrogen and phosphate fertilization on the dry matter yield in this experiment, it was noticed that the mineral nutrients did not generate, in general, relevant variations for the dry matter yield process and the average dry matter yield from the biomass of G1, G2, and G3 genotypes was 14.1567; 13.2277; and 11.5592 t ha-1, respectively
In the view of Santos et al (2016), given the price of a ton of grass and the price of fertilizer, the use of nitrogen fertilizer in the production of elephant grass for energy purposes in the municipality of Alegre is not recommended
Summary
Global energy demand has grown throughout the years, an increase related to industrial production, population growth, new energy using technologies, among other factors. Elephant grass [Cenchrus purpureus (Schumach.) Morrone] has stood out as one of the main crops for this purpose for having a high photosynthetic efficiency and high capacity for production of dry matter and fiber content (Morais et al, 2009; Santos et al, 2014; Mohammed et al, 2015). It presents high yield, rapid plant growth, high hardiness and resistance to unfavorable climatic conditions, short cycle, and biomass quality attributes (Paterlini et al, 2013)
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