Abstract

In recent years, people’s demand for meat products has increased, but the occurrence of meat food quality and safety problems has also caused irreparable losses to the safety of human lives and properties, and enterprises have lost their reputation. Since the frequent occurrence of food quality and safety incidents is the result of the lack of an early warning mechanism, a large number of problematic foods flow into the market. In order to prevent the occurrence of food quality and safety incidents and control food quality from the source, this article first refers to the results of EFSA’s Emerging Risks Project (EMRISK) and the food safety early warning framework of Kleter and Marvin, combined with the existing meat processing companies. Some quality control systems have put forward an early warning indicator system that includes the external environment of the enterprise, internal risks, and consumers’ concerns. Then, by issuing 500 questionnaires and interviewing 25 experts, 912 pieces of data were collected and a Monte Carlo simulation early warning model was established. Using case studies, taking Shandong Delis Co., Ltd. (Binzhou, China, hereinafter referred to as DLS) as an example, through sensitivity analysis and program analysis, the company’s food risk status and early warning model was evaluated. The results show that the risk of rising consumers’ concerns about counterfeiting and inferior products has the greatest impact on food quality and safety risks, followed by policy adjustment risks, and the risk of raw material sources ranked third. A total of six important risk warning indicators have been extracted, and these six need to be strictly controlled to control the overall risk. The research provides support for companies to formulate food quality monitoring, early warning and management strategies from a macro perspective, and control key early warning indicators in food quality and safety to reduce risks.

Highlights

  • Food is the basic element to maintain human survival, activities, and development

  • In this paper, referring to the opinions of domestic and foreign scholars, the factors affecting the food quality and safety of manufacturing and processing enterprises can be divided into three parts: Enterprise external environmental risks, enterprise internal risks, and consumer risks

  • For the external environmental risk, insufficiency of top management responsibility, personnel management risk, product innovation risk, and risk of consumers concerned in the internal environmental risk do not have historical data, the data was obtained through questionnaires

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Summary

Introduction

Food is the basic element to maintain human survival, activities, and development. With the progress of society, food safety has attracted more and more attention from consumers [1]. In this paper, referring to the opinions of domestic and foreign scholars, the factors affecting the food quality and safety of manufacturing and processing enterprises can be divided into three parts: Enterprise external environmental risks, enterprise internal risks, and consumer risks. The Monte Carlo method is less applied in the research of food quality and safety risk warning, and is limited to a single-factor simulation of exposure assessment of hazardous substances. This is a brand new attempt to be used in the quality and safety risk early warning research of large-scale meat processing enterprises

The Risk Early Warning Index
External Environmental Risk
Internal Environmental Risk
Risk of Consumers Concern
Framing
Weight Determination
Probability Distribution
Tool Selection
Date Source
Routine Testing Data
Questionnaire Data
Hierarchical Analysis
Distribution Fitting Analysis
Conclusions
Full Text
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