Risk dynamics modeling of reservoir dam break for safety control in the emergency response process

Guangze Shen,Yi Lu,Jilei Fu,Yan Xiang,Shichen Zhang,Shan Fu,Mengyang Liu,Jinbao Sheng

doi:10.2166/ws.2021.004

Abstract

Abstract Dam break is an accident that may heavily threat downstream residents' life and property safety, especially in China. As revealed by accident investigation statistics, both flawed organizational behavior and inadequate downstream resident risk awareness have affected the safety risk of reservoir dams. Multiple information transferring mode and dynamic processes perform with the characteristics of social-technical systems. Based on the system dynamics approach, this study proposed a risk causation model aiming for factor interactions involving organizational, human, and technical system levels. The derived simulation model represented the historical risk evolution process of Gouhou reservoir in China and the rationality of the proposed model was verified. To further improve the efficiency of the organizational response and monitor real-time dam safety, a software tool called Dam Emergency Response Aids (DERA) was constructed to evaluate the potential safety benefits of risk control measures, and to overcome the defects of static emergency plans. By integrating relevant professional modules and data, the mobile application (APP) has been applied on the Jinniu Mountain reservoir dam in Nanjing of China and helped to maintain its excellent safety operation until now. It shows that the risk dynamics model proposed can improve the abilities of dam operating management organization for more effective responses under emergency circumstances.

Highlights

Reservoirs are water conservation projects that retain water, block floods, and regulate water flow in the flood season
For potential time-domain simulation of risk evolution in dam break emergency decision-making, the causation models proposed above should be transferred as a stockflow model and the variable definition process must be implemented in semi-quantitative way
For an effective prevention and emergency response of reservoir dam break that may cause significant casualties and property damage, this paper reveals the dam operating risk dynamic mechanism and it models the general risk evolution process pervading in a social–technical system vision

Summary

Introduction

Reservoirs are water conservation projects that retain water, block floods, and regulate water flow in the flood season. The reinforcing and balancing feedback loop structure-based conceptual model can be proposed to describe the dynamic influences of organization, human, and technical system factors on the dam break accident.

Results

Conclusion