Abstract
During the development of complex gas reservoirs, the risk decision-making problem often emerges. Thus, the study on risk assessment is an important tool used to identify potential hazards and create appropriate avoidance measures accordingly. Based on the analysis of seven types of risk factors in gas reservoir development planning, this paper aims to clarify the logical relationship between the risk factors in the strategic planning of natural gas development. The comprehensive research on target risks in the gas reservoir development planning based on stochastic simulation was carried out. The “probability curve scanning method” was used to evaluate objective risk factors, while the decision-making risk factors were evaluated using the “probability curve displacement method.” According to the realization probability and dispersion degree of the planned target combined with the risk grade evaluation matrix, the planning target evaluation risk grade was implemented. Moreover, the planning unit risk grade evaluation was obtained at different stages. Regarding the specific production capacity conditions in gas wells (horizontal and vertical wells) and gas reservoir water invasion, the probability method with Monte Carlo stochastic simulation was used to calculate the production and water invasion volumes. The established decision-making risk technology for gas reservoir development, along with the associated supporting procedures, can be used to evaluate the risks of reservoir development planning, production, and water invasion.
Highlights
At present, the total natural gas reserves in Sichuan Basin are about 66 × 1012 m3, which is one of the most promising places for the development of natural gas reservoirs in China
The data that has to be prepared can be divided into three types: (1) Exploration, prior development, and current data (2) Planning program targets and deployment (3) Risk factor probability curves
Risk factor probability curves are critical to quantitative risk evaluation
Summary
The total natural gas reserves in Sichuan Basin are about 66 × 1012 m3, which is one of the most promising places for the development of natural gas reservoirs in China. When considering Sichuan Basin exploration, the carbonate sequences including the Middle Permian and the southern Weiyuan Sinian, the high and steep structures of the eastern Carboniferous, the Permian system, and the northeastern Triassic system were successively developed after more than 60 years [1]. During 2011-2012, the Sinian Dengying Formation and the Cambrian Longwangmiao Formation in central Sichuan Basin were a place of a great breakthrough in natural gas exploration, becoming vital fields for the increase of the conventional natural gas storage and production in the basin [2, 3]. Many scholars have carried out numerous studies to evaluate the development properties of various types of gas reservoirs.
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