Abstract
The mathematical expectation value method is a commonly used method in risk decision-making. This paper studies the problem of how to arrange the purchase plan in order to get the maximum expected profit; considering the applicable principles of mathematical expectation, the decision method for getting the optimal decision scheme is given. Finally, we do simulation and stability analysis on an example and obtain the reasonable result. This result shows that mathematical expectation value method is effective in solving the problem of risk decision.
Highlights
Purchasing, as the very beginning of logistic activities, covers every steps from suppliers to demanders regarding products, technique, information and service
How to cite this paper: Wang, F.Y. and Liang, Z.X. (2016) Risk Decision Analysis of Logistics Purchasing Based on Mathematical Expectation
Among the various activities of enterprises, purchasing is an important input link, which is of great significance to the enterprise cost control
Summary
Purchasing, as the very beginning of logistic activities, covers every steps from suppliers to demanders regarding products, technique, information and service. (2016) Risk Decision Analysis of Logistics Purchasing Based on Mathematical Expectation. Risk decision is the one with incomplete information It is based on the scientific analysis of risk and lost to choose the proper and satisfying techniques and methods from the many alternative solutions [3]. Mathematical expectation is one of the important characters in probability theory It plays a very important role in the economic management [4] [5]. Xu [9] introduced the application of mathematical expectation in logistics management such as making decisions, choosing the optimal purchase batch size and the optimal stock quantity. We will study the applicable principles of mathematical expectation value method in risk decision-making.
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