Risk Compensation and HIV Therapy: A Field Experiment in South Africa

Abstract

Risk compensation—the phenomenon positing that people adjust their risky behaviours in response to changes in perceived risks—could have the adverse effect of worsening health outcomes. Consequently, understanding potential behavioural responses is critical for designing effective public policies. This study examines the relationship between improved human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) therapy and subsequent risky sexual behaviour. Using a field experiment in South Africa, I estimate the causal effects of improved HIV therapy adherence on subsequent risky sexual behaviour among HIV-positive patients. I find that access to HIV therapy induces a substantial increase in the demand for unsafe sex.