Abstract
BackgroundRisk charts are used to estimate the risk of cardiovascular diseases; however, most have been developed in Western countries. In Japan, currently available risk charts are based on mortality data. Using data on cardiovascular disease incidence from the JMS Cohort Study, we developed charts that illustrated the risk of stroke.Methods and ResultsThe JMS Cohort Study is a community-based cohort study of cardiovascular disease. Baseline data were obtained between 1992 and 1995. In the present analysis, the participants were 12 276 subjects without a history of stroke; the follow-up period was 10.7 years. Color-coded risk charts were created by using Cox’s proportional hazards models to calculate 10-year absolute risks associated with sex, age, smoking status, diabetes status, and systolic blood pressure. The risks of stroke and cerebral infarction rose as age and systolic blood pressure increased. Although the risk of cerebral hemorrhage were generally lower than that of cerebral infarction, the patterns of association with risk factors were similar.ConclusionThese risk charts should prove useful for clinicians and other health professionals who are required to estimate an individual’s risk for stroke.
Highlights
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cerebrovascular disease are the second and third most common causes of death in Japan.[1]
Sex, blood pressure, smoking status, and diabetes status are considered the major factors in quantifying stroke risk.[4,6,7,8,9,10,11]
We used data from the Jichi Medical School (JMS) Cohort Study to develop charts that display the risk of stroke among Japanese
Summary
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cerebrovascular disease are the second and third most common causes of death in Japan.[1]. Sex, blood pressure, smoking status, and diabetes status are considered the major factors in quantifying stroke risk.[4,6,7,8,9,10,11] Several models to predict the risk of CVD were developed after the Framingham risk estimates were reported.[12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19] most of these only assess the risk for coronary heart disease (CHD); only a few address the risk of stroke. Risk charts are used to estimate the risk of cardiovascular diseases; most have been developed in Western countries. Using data on cardiovascular disease incidence from the JMS Cohort Study, we developed charts that illustrated the risk of stroke. Conclusion: These risk charts should prove useful for clinicians and other health professionals who are required to estimate an individual’s risk for stroke
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