Abstract
BackgroundRisk charts that depict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) for each combination of risk factors in individuals are convenient and beneficial tools for primary prevention of ischemic heart disease. Although risk charts have been developed using data from North American and European cardiovascular cohort studies, there is no such chart derived from cardiovascular incidence data obtained from the Japanese population.Methods and ResultsWe calculated and constructed risk charts that estimate the 10-year absolute risk of MI by using data from the Jichi Medical School (JMS) Cohort Study—a prospective cohort study which followed 12 490 participants in 12 Japanese rural communities for an average of 10.9 years. We identified 92 cases of a clinically-certified MI event. Color-coded risk charts were created by calculating the absolute risk associated with the following conventional cardiovascular risk factors: age, sex, smoking status, diabetes status, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol.ConclusionsIn health education and clinical practice, particularly in rural communities, these charts should prove useful in understanding the risks of MI, without the need for cumbersome calculations. In addition, they can be expected to provide benefits by improving existing risk factors in individuals.
Highlights
Ischemic heart disease is the leading cause of death in most Western countries.[1]
Risk factors known to have an impact on ischemic heart disease include age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, lipid profile, and diabetes.[3]
There is the potential for a commensurate increase in the incidence of ischemic heart disease in the near future
Summary
Ischemic heart disease is the leading cause of death in most Western countries.[1] In Japan, mortality from ischemic heart disease is much lower than that in Western countries, it is still a major cause of death.[1,2] Risk factors known to have an impact on ischemic heart disease include age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, lipid profile, and diabetes.[3] Recently, population groups with increased coronary risks, including individuals with hyperlipidemia and those with diabetes, have been growing rapidly in Japan. Conclusions: In health education and clinical practice, in rural communities, these charts should prove useful in understanding the risks of MI, without the need for cumbersome calculations. They can be expected to provide benefits by improving existing risk factors in individuals
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