Risk blindness in local perspectives about the Alberta oil sands hinders Canada's decarbonization

Luis D Virla,Dirk-Jan Van De Ven,Jon Sampedro,Oscar Van Vliet,Alistair Smith,Hector Pollitt,Jenny Lieu

doi:10.1016/j.eist.2021.10.008

Abstract

Local perspectives can conflict with national and international climate targets. This study explores three stakeholder (community, provincial, and federal) perspectives on the Alberta oil sands as risks for a sustainability transition in Canada. In an ex-post analysis, we compared outputs from stakeholder consultations and energy-economy models. Our research shows that different local stakeholders groups disregarded some policy risks for the Alberta oil sands and Canadian energy transition. These stakeholders expected the sector to grow, despite increasing environmental penalties and external market pressures. The study revealed that blind-spots on risks, or “risk blindness”, increased as stakeholders became less certain about policy climate goals. We argue that “risk blindness” could be amplified by dominant institutional narratives that contradict scientific research and international climate policy. Strategies that integrate local narratives, considered as marginalized, provide perspectives beyond emission reductions and are essential for meeting climate targets while supporting a just transition.

Highlights

Production from the Alberta oil sands contributes to ~9.3% of total Canadian greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this covering emissions from extraction, transportation, and processing (Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Canada 2018) only
Our first research questions explored: “How do local perspectives in the Alberta oil sands impact a sustainability transition for Canada?” and “To what extent are the views of local stakeholders barriers to transitioning towards a more sustainable future? Answering these questions led us to an ex-post analysis of stakeholders’ blind-spots in the risks they identified, which we described as risk blindness and explore in this study
The perspectives considered were: (i) “Local Community” (LC), where a paced development is emphasised to protect the ecological integrity of the land, as reflected in a scientific study commissioned by a local Indigenous community; (ii) “Provincial Policies” (PP), incorporating a carbon price based on Alberta’s own climate policy; and (iii) “Federal Policies” (FP) which aim to decrease carbon intensity of the Canadian economy by increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy mix and increasing carbon pricing

Summary

Introduction

Production from the Alberta oil sands contributes to ~9.3% of total Canadian greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this covering emissions from extraction, transportation, and processing (Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Canada 2018) only (not combustion). The oil sands are considered to be one of the most carbon intensive forms of crude oil production from a “well- to-refinery” perspective (Masnadi et al, 2018). This sector has been expected to keep growing and it is widely supported by the provincial Government and the general public, despite major environmental and economic challenges. I.e. scientists, institutes, NGOs, and others, indicate that the environmental impact of the Alberta oil sands development is expanding, with impacts on local waterways, ecological integrity, and land use [(Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) 2020; Cook, 2012; Hoberg and Phillips, 2011; McWhinney, 2014; Parajulee and Wania, 2014)].

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