Risk-based modeling of socio-ecological development within the Ob-Irtysh basin of Ugra

Abstract

Relevance of the work. Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra is the largest oil producer in the country, which is associated with significant geoecological risks. Solving the problems of preserving the safety of the natural environment in a vast territory with a high anthropogenic load requires the attraction of new directions, taking into account the existing mechanisms of natural-climatic and socio-economic development within the Ob-Irtysh basin. Purpose of the work is to develop proposals for the implementation of a risk-oriented modeling model for the social and ecological development of the Ob-Irtysh basin of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra. Research method. Primary cartographic and semantic information on the territory of the Ob-Irtysh basin was collected and compared with data on the socio-economic development of the region; then modelling of the socioecological development of the territory based on a risk-based model was performed. Results. The socio-economic development of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra is associated with rational nature management within the boundaries of the Ob-Irtysh basin. For this purpose, appropriate information and telecommunications infrastructure have been created, and mechanisms for making management decisions in the field of environmental management have been formed on the basis of full-fledged risk-oriented information support. The proposed model makes it possible to create an effective organization of nature management, which allows the general public to be provided with full-fledged factual material that reflects the specifics of the development of the geoecological situation. Conclusions. Rational nature management in the Ob-Irtysh basin of Ugra can be effectively organized on the basis of risk-oriented modeling of socio-ecological development, on the basis of the full use of accumulated experience and information resources in the current political, socio-economic, infrastructural and climatic conditions