Abstract
Background: In Switzerland, Aedes albopictus is well established in Ticino, south of the Alps, where surveillance and control are implemented. The mosquito has also been observed in Swiss cities north of the Alps. Decision-making tools are urgently needed by the local authorities in order to optimize surveillance and control. Methods: A regularized logistic regression was used to link the long-term dataset of Ae. albopictus occurrence in Ticino with socioenvironmental predictors. The probability of establishment of Ae. albopictus was extrapolated to Switzerland and more finely to the cities of Basel and Zurich. Results: The model performed well, with an AUC of 0.86. Ten socio-environmental predictors were selected as informative, including the road-based distance in minutes of travel by car from the nearest cell established in the previous year. The risk maps showed high suitability for Ae. albopictus establishment in the Central Plateau, the area of Basel, and the lower Rhone Valley in the Canton of Valais. Conclusions: The areas identified as suitable for Ae. albopictus establishment are consistent with the actual current findings of tiger mosquito. Our approach provides a useful tool to prompt authorities’ intervention in the areas where there is higher risk of introduction and establishment of Ae. albopictus.
Highlights
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutralIn the last four decades, the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894), has been spreading globally outside its native range in Southeast Asia, to the point of being listed as one of the world’s worst invasive alien species [1,2]
We focused on two areas, the cities of Basel and Zurich, for which we did have records of positive ovitraps for 2019 (37 points of first establishment for Basel and 16 for Zurich; data kindly provided by the Inspection body for chemical and biosafety (KCB)
The importance of the predictors was evaluated based on the coefficients assigned to them by each of the eight LASSO logistic regression models trained in cross validation on years 2005 to 2012
Summary
In the last four decades, the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894), has been spreading globally outside its native range in Southeast Asia, to the point of being listed as one of the world’s worst invasive alien species [1,2]. Its invasion success has been favored by both extrinsic factors, such as increase of global trade and travel, climate change and lack of efficient control, and intrinsic factors, such as strong physiological and ecological plasticity [1,3,4]. Host-seeking adult females can cause severe nuisance due to their aggressive daytime outdoor biting activity. Their ability to transmit several arboviruses, including dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever viruses, raises high public concern [7,8]. The increase of Aedes-borne diseases in Europe is becoming quite alarming, with a succession of epidemics of dengue and with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations
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