Risk-based dynamic inoperability input-output and non-linear optimisation models to analyse resilience in the construction industry

Abstract

Pakistan has faced significant economic losses due to catastrophes, specifically floods. This study aims to assess the ripple effects of the 2022 floods, focusing on the Construction Industry, which has been gaining importance in the national economy, and on the resilience of economic sectors absorbing the negative shocks from floods. The study uses the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) Input-Output database for Pakistan using the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM) with the Fuzzy Full Consistency Method (F-FUCOM). The analysis revealed that the Construction Industry’s weak resilience resulted in a prolonged recovery period and that the lack of flood risk mitigation infrastructure was identified as the most critical. The results suggest that policymakers prioritise such infrastructures, like dams, early warning systems, and transportation infrastructure, to enhance the resilience of the overall economy.