Risk-based assessment of aftershock and mainshock-aftershock seismic performance of reinforced concrete frames

Abstract

The increase in seismic activity after a large-magnitude earthquake coupled with the reduction in the lateral load-carrying capacity of the affected structures presents a significant human and financial risk to communities. The focus of this paper is placed on quantifying the impact of both the elevated post-mainshock seismic hazard as well as the mainshock-induced structural damage on the seismic risk of three reinforced concrete moment frame structures. The seismic hazard due to sequential earthquakes is examined in both pre- and post-mainshock environments. The time-dependent nature of seismic hazard in the post-mainshock environment is accounted for through the adoption of a Markov risk assessment framework. In the post-mainshock environment, the seismic risk is examined as a function of the time elapsed since the mainshock’s occurrence while in the pre-mainshock environment, the risk is investigated during an assumed lifespan of 50 years for the studied structures. For the buildings and the high-seismicity site used in this study, both the increased post-mainshock seismic hazard as well as the reduction in the structural capacity are found to have a great influence on the seismic risk. The substantial contribution of aftershocks to the collapse risk in the pre-mainshock environment highlights the need for a design procedure that accounts for the additional seismic risk from aftershocks.