Abstract
We propose a methodology for risk-aware decision making related to the investment in safety. The methodology consists of probabilistic risk assessment and following cost-benefit analysis upon calculated risk values. We introduce a web-based tool for computing the risk for various safety regimes. The tool makes use of joint fire and evacuation modelling along with Monte Carlo sampling for uncertain or variate input variables. The results include individual as well as societal risk values, related to fatalities or serious injuries. The obtained changes in risk values – related to the applied safety measures – define an input for the cost-benefit analysis. The analysis is based on the Life Quality Index and J-value judgement method. As a case study, we used the hotel part of a seven-story mixed-use building. We designed the methodology to be applicable in day-to-day engineering calculations related to the safety of the building as well as other purposes, such as the introduction of the new product to the market. Therefore, in this article, we focus on the practical aspect of the methodology.
Highlights
The behavior of the fire in buildings remains outside deterministic quantification
We presented a complete methodology starting from the preparation of the model of the building enabling stochastic fire and evacuation modeling, individual as well as societal risk calculation, and decision-making framework upon the calculated risks
The application of given safety measures is reflected in the reduction in risk value for fatalities and seriously injured
Summary
The behavior of the fire in buildings remains outside deterministic quantification. Its stochastic nature means the fire is difficult to predict as it develops, even for experienced firefighters, resulting in the number of line of duty deaths each year [73]. Fire safety engineers face such a challenge in their day-to-day work They have to design safety measures that protect a building from fires, which behavior is mostly unknown at the design stage. To cope with this problem, they mostly use the collective experience of the profession or an adequate level of conservatism [9]. Conservatism, on the other hand, requires a good understanding of fire phenomena and performance criteria. It is criticized for unjustified costs, low flexibility, and preventing technological innovations and alternative solutions [1,28]
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