Risk Avoidance and Deterrence: Duality of the US Policy toward China

Abstract

The Biden administration has demonstrated high emphasis on economic competition among major powers. Although it has stated multiple times that the US does not seek confrontation with China, the Biden administration’s security policy toward China, compared with that of the Trump administration, is more confrontational, which is underscored by its constant pushing of China’s red line in the Taiwan issue. Strategic competition against China is clearly regarded as the pivot of the foreign policy by the Biden administration, which has lowered expectation of China and has changed the mentality of striving for “big deals” to “no deal” in its China policy. The Biden administration believes that the US has a long-term advantage, and has developed a composite strategy comprised of two tactics based on its perception of the strategic positioning and the competitive status of China and the US. The first is a dominant strategy of (to gain advantages by risk avoiding), namely to cut off China’s access to external technological innovation resources and maintain the long-term advantage of the US while avoiding bilateral interactions of high costs, risks, and uncertainties, in order to ensure a lasting and secure victory as much as possible. The second is a supporting strategy of (to prevent wars by enhancing commitment), which aims to prevent China from taking high-risk actions or launching military challenges against the US on key issues when perceiving disadvantage. and focus, respectively, on economic and security policies, which together constitute the logic for the US strategic competition against China. To this end, the US has strengthened its strategic deterrence against China by reinforcing its key foreign commitments and mobilizing its allies.