Abstract
It has long been understood that risk aversion reduces the likelihood of suit. This article offers a simple proof that risk aversion is observationally equivalent to risk-neutral pessimism by applying a change of measure to risk-neutral probabilities. The observational equivalence of risk aversion to risk-neutral pessimism may provide a useful framework for proving results in the study of several areas of interest, including (1) the role of risk-transfer mechanisms like contingency fees and litigation funding; (2) calls for prohibitions on, or judicial participation in, plea bargains; and (3) broader judicial review of the fairness, reasonableness, and adequacy of settlements in individual (that is, non-class) civil actions.
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